DAYTON — Tired of all the rain? Most area residents have had more than their fill of day after day of rain and overcast sky, but according to the National Weather Service (NWS) it is going to get worse before things start to improve.
The NWS says widespread severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, tornadoes and large hail are likely Monday mainly across Illinois,Indiana, Northern Kentucky and Southwest Ohio. Other severe storms are likely in surrounding states from Tennessee into West Virginia and North Carolina. A few strong to severe storms are possible across the Southeastern States and in the Central Plains Monday afternoon.
Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley/Central Appalachian Mountains: A positively-tilted upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface a moist axis should be in place from the lower Ohio Valley southwestward into the Upper Mississippi Valley, along which moderate instability should develop by midday.
A couple clusters of thunderstorms could be ongoing Monday morning along a gradient of instability from eastern Wisconsin south-southeastward across Lake Michigan into Indiana where an isolated wind damage threat will be possible.
As surface temperatures warm, an axis of strong instability is forecast to develop across the mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley extending Northwestward into Wisconsin. Surface-based thunderstorms appear most likely to initiate at the northern end of the strongest instability across southern Wisconsin during the late afternoon. This convection is forecast to expand in coverage and rapidly intensify, moving south-southeastward across the Chicago metro area eventually reaching Indianapolis during the evening.
Due to strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear profiles,a significant severe weather event seems probable from northern Illinois south-southeastward across Indiana into northern Kentucky from late Monday afternoon through the evening.
The Chicago metro area shows strong instability with a very moist air mass. This environment will be favorable for severe storms with super cells and bow echoes possible.
The current thinking is that a bowing line segment will develop in southern Wisconsin during the late afternoon. As convective coverage increases a linear complex of thunderstorms and an associated cold pool is forecast to organize and move quickly south-southeastward across eastern Illinois and into Indiana.
Widespread wind damage is expected to occur along the track of the complex of thunderstorms eventually reaching the Louisville area. Super cells capable of producing large hail and tornadoes may also develop within the complex of thunderstorms or out across the warm sector well ahead of the main convective system. Severe thunderstorms could also occur late Monday afternoon across parts of lower Michigan where wind damage will also be possible.Ron Nunnari can be reached at 684-9124, via email Rnunnari@civitasmedia.com or on Twitter @Englewood_Ind